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UGG ブーツ 店舗 rising inflation

. At the same time these countries for the social security system is not perfect aging population, an aging population for health insurance, a serious shortage of the necessary financial provision of social welfare. Five years ago, if these countries do not have a way to raise revenue through tax increases, then the future revenue of these countries even harder to improve. Because the post-war baby boomers entering retirement age,UGG ブーツ 人気, they should have to start extracting social security, and they are among the largest of the various social groups of voters. Difficulty the government to solve this problem today, inevitably greater. I believe that the developed countries in Medicare and Social Security of the black hole, has no proper way to be fundamentally resolved. In the next two decades, central banks have had to do this in order to support a large number of issuing fiscal spending, thus further exacerbating rising inflation. Accordingly I judge, the era of low inflation worldwide has ended, structural inflation era has arrived. In addition to cyclical factors currently see,UGG ブーツ 店舗, for example, U.S. factors, liquidity factors, the central bank of factors, long-term inflation will rise further. While there may be cyclical decline in inflation and rising, but the structural high inflation era has arrived. In the high inflation environment, monetary assets such as savings, bonds will gradually lose its appeal,UGG ブーツ アウトレット, hard assets such as real estate, commodities, hedge may become an investment tool. States should "stagflation" of the different strategies the author estimates that in 2008 the global inflation rate of 3% -3.2%. 1.5% compared to 2000-2005 levels, there is a substantial price rise. For many developed countries, inflation has reached the danger of red, central banks had to clean up the inflation situation. Now, however, central banks not only have to face inflationary pressures, while also facing the risk of growth. Making the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has entered a substantial downturn. Believe that economic growth in Europe and Japan in the second half of this year will decline, G3 synchronized slowdown in the national economy have been inevitable. The current and the next period of time, central banks face a slowing growth and rising inflation dilemma, many people called "stagflation." However, the use of "stagflation" of the word need to be careful, because today's slowdown, rising inflation, stagflation situation with the real situation of the 1970s essentially different. When the stagflation of the 1970s,UGG ブーツ 店舗, there has been double-digit inflation increased, while economic growth is negative. At the time, developed economies have a structural defect in the labor market, energy consumption, and the central bank and the market is also in opposition to one another state. Then double-digit inflation, the shock to the economy, the countries currently faced with rising prices is quite different. I believe that today's world economy is slowing, inflation cycle, not the "stagflation" in the traditional sense
。同时这些国家对于老龄人口的社会保障体制并不健全,对于老龄人口的健康保险、社会福利所需的财政拨备严重不足。如果五年前这些国家没有办法通过加税来提高财政收入,那么今后这些国家的财政收入就更难提高,UGG ブーツ 正規品。因为战后婴儿潮进入了退休年龄,开始提取自己应得的社会保障,而他们又是各个社会中间最大的选民群。政府今天解决这个问题的难度必然更大。笔者相信发达国家在医疗保险和社会保障的黑洞,已经没有妥善的办法得到根本的解决。在今后的二十年,各国央行都不得不为此大量的发钞以支持财政支出,由此进一步加剧通货膨胀的上升。据此笔者判断,全球范围内的低通胀时代已经结束,结构性的通胀时代已经来临。除了目前见到的周期性因素,例如美元因素,流动性因素、央行因素之外,中长期的通货膨胀也会进一步的上扬。虽然通货膨胀可能有周期性的下降和上升,但是结构性的高通胀时代已经来临。在高通胀环境下,货币资产例如储蓄、债券会逐步失去吸引力,硬资产如房地产、商品,则可能成为人们保值的投资工具,アグ モカシン。各国应对“滞胀” 的不同策略笔者估计,2008年全球通货膨胀率为3%—3.2%,UGG ブーツ アウトレット。比起2000—2005年1.5%的水平,物价有一个大幅度的上扬。对于许多发达国家而言,通货膨胀已经达到了亮红灯的危险境地,各国央行不得不收拾通货膨胀的局面。然而,现在各国央行不仅要面对通胀的压力,同时也面临着增长的风险。次贷危机使得美国已经进入了一个实质性的经济衰退,UGG ブーツ 人気。相信欧洲、日本的经济增长在今年下半年也会有所下滑,G3国家经济同步放缓已经不可避免。当前以及接下来的一段时间,各国央行面对的是增长放缓和通胀上升的两难局面,许多人称之为“滞胀”。但是使用“滞胀”这个词需要小心,UGG ブーツ 正規品,因为今天的增长放缓、通胀上扬,与真正出现滞胀局面的上世纪70年代的情况有着本质的不同。上世纪70年代的滞胀时,通货膨胀出现了双位数的增加,而经济增长是负值。当时,发达国家的经济在劳工市场、能源消费上具有结构性的缺陷,而央行与市场也处于彼此对立的状态,アグ モカシン。当时双位数的通货膨胀,对经济所带来的震撼,与目前各国所面对的物价上升不可同日而语。笔者认为,今天的世界经济处于增长放缓、通胀上升的周期,并非传统意义上的“滞胀”
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